BTC volatility: 2025 vs 2026 (YTD)
Symbol: BTCUSDT perpetual (Binance USDⓈ-M). Source: normalized 1m bars,
aggregated to UTC days. 2025 is complete (365 days); 2026 data ends
30 Sep 2026, so all cross-year statements use the common
1 Jan – 30 Sep window unless labelled "full year".
Reproduce with python scripts/btc_vol_compare.py.
Chart: reports/figures/btc_vol_2025_vs_2026.png.
Headline
| Metric (annualized) | 2025 full year | 2025 Jan–Sep | 2026 Jan–Sep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close-to-close vol | 41.8% | 41.7% | 46.1% |
| Intraday realized vol (1m RV) | 45.3% | 44.2% | 44.8% |
| Parkinson (high/low) vol | 46.2% | 44.4% | 46.2% |
| Average daily range | 3.41% | 3.28% | 3.41% |
| Mean |daily return| | 1.57% | 1.52% | 1.63% |
| Max daily gain | +9.1% | +9.1% | +11.5% |
| Max daily loss | −8.9% | −8.9% | −15.1% |
| Days |return| > 3% | 54 | 42 | 37 |
| Days |return| > 5% | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.3 | 2.8 | 7.5 |
| Max drawdown | −32.1% | −28.1% | −39.5% |
| Price change over window | −7.4% | +20.5% | −4.6% |
Same calendar window: 2026 realized vol is ~10.6% higher than 2025 on a close-to-close basis (46.1% vs 41.7%). But the increase is not broad-based: intraday 1-minute realized variance is essentially unchanged (44.8% vs 44.2%), and average daily range is identical at 3.41%. The whole difference sits in the tails — 2026 produced fewer mid-sized (3%+) days but much larger outlier days, a −39.5% drawdown, and 2.5–3× the excess kurtosis.
Volatility regime by month
Annualized close-to-close vol:
| Month | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 43.3% | 43.2% |
| Feb | 38.7% | 82.3% |
| Mar | 66.7% | 49.5% |
| Apr | 54.4% | 36.4% |
| May | 36.0% | 26.1% |
| Jun | 31.9% | 44.1% |
| Jul | 26.5% | 31.3% |
| Aug | 35.9% | 41.5% |
| Sep | 24.5% | 41.2% |
| Oct | 44.0% | — |
| Nov | 44.6% | — |
| Dec | 37.3% | — |
Monthly return (%), for context:
| Month | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +7.9% | −10.7% |
| Feb | −19.4% | −16.2% |
| Mar | −2.1% | +1.9% |
| Apr | +13.2% | +11.2% |
| May | +10.5% | −3.5% |
| Jun | +2.4% | −22.9% |
| Jul | +7.7% | +7.0% |
| Aug | −6.7% | +22.3% |
| Sep | +5.2% | +6.2% |
Quarterly vol: 2025 Q1 51.5 → Q2 41.5 → Q3 29.4 → Q4 41.9; 2026 Q1 59.5 → Q2 36.9 → Q3 38.1.
The two years are close to mirror images within the year:
- 2025 front-loaded its volatility. Q1 was the hot quarter (66.7% March, the Feb–Mar selloff), then vol ground down to a 24–26% floor in Jul–Sep, and re-spiked only in Oct (the 10 Oct liquidation, −7.6% day, biggest 1-minute drop of the sample at −5.1%) and Nov.
- 2026 carried its volatility in bursts and never fully calmed down. The 5 Feb crash (−15.1% in a day, low 62.2k from a 73.1k open, +11.5% the next day) took the 30-day vol to 84%, the highest of either year. June was another −22.9% month. And unlike 2025, Q3 stayed elevated (Sep 41.2% vs 24.5%) despite a +22.3% August rally.
Distribution of 30-day vol
Rolling 30-day annualized vol:
| Stat | 2025 | 2026 (to Sep 30) |
|---|---|---|
| Mean | 40.6% | 42.4% |
| Median | 37.8% | 40.8% |
| Std (vol-of-vol) | 11.7% | 15.7% |
| Min | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| Max | 71.8% | 84.0% |
| Share of days > 60% | 7% | 11% |
| Share of days < 30% | 19% | 21% |
Medians are close (37.8% vs 40.8%, 30d vol sits around the 50th percentile of the pooled 2025–26 distribution in both years), but the dispersion is very different: vol-of-vol is up ~34%, and 2026 spends noticeably more time above 60% while also giving more calm sub-30% days. That is a two-regime year rather than a uniformly more volatile one.
Interpretation
- Vol level: 2026 is modestly higher (+4.3 vol points, +10.6% relative) over the comparable window. Not a different volatility regime by level, but a different shape.
- Where the extra variance comes from: not from continuous intraday churn — 1m RV and average range are flat across years. It comes from a handful of directional shock days. In 2025 the biggest daily loss was −8.9%; in 2026 it was −15.1%, and the loss distribution has visibly fatter tails (kurtosis 7.5 vs 2.3).
- Path risk: 2026's max drawdown (−39.5%) is ~40% deeper than 2025's (−32.1%), with a similar number of >5% days (13 vs 15). Fewer medium shocks, more large ones.
- Practical takeaway: vol-targeting or fixed-vol sizing calibrated on 2025 would have under-risked the median 2026 day slightly but badly under-priced the tail. Stress/scenario sizing based on the 2025 max daily loss would have been off by ~6 vol points on the worst 2026 day. If anything, 2026 argues for sizing on tail quantiles rather than average realized vol.
Caveats
- 2026 is YTD through 30 Sep; Q4 is missing and Q4 2025 was itself elevated (Oct 44.0%, Nov 44.6%), so the full-year 2026 number could move either way.
- Vol is measured on the perp only; no funding, basis, or options-implied vol is included. Perp trades 24/7, so "overnight gap" variance is ~0 and close-to-close ≈ open-to-close.
- 1m RV excludes the 00:00 UTC bar (overnight jump) by construction; it is therefore an intraday variance measure and is expected to sit below close-to-close vol when moves trend across days.